How the 100% tariffs on China will unfold in four parts.

𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟭𝟬𝟬% 𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗳𝗳 𝗼𝗻 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘂𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗱 (based on my work with hundreds of factories in China and brands in the US)

𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗰𝗸-𝗮𝗻𝗱-𝗔𝘄𝗲 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗠𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮 𝗕𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘇 ☑️

• For Trump, the chaos is useful. He wants the opposition to be reacting to his moves.

• Reassert dominance (e.g. impossible to believe, restart trade talks)

• Create panic in markets, shifting leverage (S&P 500 fell 2.7%)

𝗟𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗕𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝗨𝗻𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 ☑️

Trump already threatened to cancel the expected summit with Xi Jinping. The confusion itself is leverage. Beijing officials didn’t anticipate the action or that the trade summit could get cancelled.

𝗕𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗲𝗹 𝗗𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝘆𝗺𝗯𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 🕙

Trump set November 1 for the 100% tariff to go live, giving China 1 month to move back from the new export controls on rare earth elements (China scheduled export controls to start on Dec 1).

• Agree to small concessions (e.g. quota limits, voluntary export restraints)

• Offer face-saving agreements

• Make unrelated political or diplomatic concessions (Soybean sales to China)

Trump will then claim victory, even a cosmetic win can be sold as a masterstroke.

𝗧𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗳𝗳𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲𝗱/𝗣𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗲𝗱/𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗲𝗱, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗟𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿𝘀 🕙

In the end, tariffs will be:

• Paused

• Lowered dramatically from 100% before November 1st

• Replaced with “negotiated agreements”

The broader Trump message stays: “𝘋𝘰𝘯’𝘵 𝘮𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘶𝘴.”

𝗧𝗟;𝗗𝗥

The tariffs will be softened/paused for face-saving agreements. Disruption was the point not the policy. Trump gets to claim strength, force concessions (real or not), and walk away declaring success, regardless of where the dust actually settles.

⭐ 𝗜𝗳 𝘆𝗼𝘂’𝗿𝗲 𝗮 𝗯𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗱, 𝗸𝗲𝗲𝗽 𝗳𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗻 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗲 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗯𝘀𝗼𝗿𝗯 𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗳𝗳𝘀 (𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗼 𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘂𝗽 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 𝗶𝗳 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗰𝗮𝗻).

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